The life expectancy calculator that shows its work

Enter a few facts about yourself and see your estimated survival curve. Every number behind it is open: inspect the model, change its assumptions, compare models, and export your version as an open model file.

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Your profile

Or enter height and weight below.

Leisure-time activity that makes you breathe harder, e.g. brisk walking, cycling, sport. Count vigorous minutes (running, fast cycling) twice.

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Adjusts US population mortality for three of the best-measured lifestyle factors: cigarette smoking (including the age you quit), body mass index and leisure-time exercise. Each effect comes from a large published study of all-cause mortality; the share of US adults in each group comes from NHANES.

Results

Expected age at death
78.6
Remaining years
38.6
Median age at death
81.2
0%25%50%75%100%405060708090100110Age

YouAverage for your age and sex

Reaching 80
54%
Reaching 90
20%
Reaching 100
1.1%
  • Smoking: not provided, treated as population average.
  • Body mass index: not provided, treated as population average.
  • Exercise: not provided, treated as population average.
Edit this model's assumptions
Smoking (smoking_status)
LevelHazard ratioShare of population
never
former_quit_before_35
former_quit_35_44
former_quit_45_54
former_quit_55_plus
former
current

Shares of the population from NHANES 2017-2020. The "former, quit age unknown" ratio (1.2) is the population-weighted average of the quit-age groups.

Body mass index (bmi)
LevelHazard ratioShare of population
below 18.5
18.5 to under 25
25 to under 30
30 to under 35
35 to under 40
40 or more

Shares of the population from NHANES 2017-2020 measured BMI.

Exercise (mvpa_minutes_per_week)
LevelHazard ratioShare of population
below 1
1 to under 150
150 to under 300
300 to under 450
450 to under 800
800 to under 1500
1500 or more

Bands are the study's MET-hour categories converted to moderate-equivalent minutes (0, under 7.5, 7.5-15, 15-22.5, 22.5-40, 40-75 and 75+ MET-hours). Shares from NHANES 2017-2020.

Hazard ratios are rescaled so that someone with population-average exposure matches the baseline life table. Shares of the population must add up to 1 for each factor.